U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 index futures moved in different directions after Wednesday's higher close. That's the polite way of saying nobody quite knows what to do with the Fed right now.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, in line with market expectations, a month after its first rate hike in three years. The vote was 10-2, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike, and the statement said inflation remains "elevated." So two people on the committee looked at the same data and decided the Fed wasn't being tough enough. That's worth noting.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.99%, and the 2-year Treasury bond yielded 4.67% at the last check. The CME Group's FedWatch tool projections show markets pricing in a 79.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates after its December meeting. So the market's base case is: no move now, but a hike is coming. The bond market seems to have gotten the memo.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA), which track the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively, were mixed in premarket trading on Thursday. The SPY was down 0.23% at $770.55, the QQQ declined 0.99% to $718.40, and the DIA rose 0.59% to $527.79.
Alphabet
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) was 10.07% lower in premarket trading on Thursday after reporting third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.12 per share on revenue of $127.58 billion after the closing bell on Wednesday, missing estimates of $3.02 per share and $128.18 billion.
- MarketDash's stock rankings indicate that GOOGL maintains a negative price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a strong quality score.
That's a rough one. Missing on both the top and bottom line is bad enough, but a 10% premarket drop suggests investors were expecting a lot more from the search-and-cloud giant. The quality score is strong, which is the polite way of saying the business is fine but the stock is not having a good morning.
T-Mobile US
- T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) was 2.30% higher in premarket trading on Thursday after reporting third-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.22 per share on revenue of $23.58 billion after the closing bell on Wednesday, beating estimates of $2.91 per share and $23.14 billion.
- MarketDash's stock rankings indicate that TMUS maintains a negative price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor momentum score.
KLA
- KLA Corp. (NASDAQ: KLAC) was 2.05% higher in premarket trading on Thursday after reporting first-quarter 2027 earnings of $1.22 per share on revenue of $4.14 billion after the closing bell on Wednesday, beating estimates of $1.18 per share and $4.04 billion.
- MarketDash's stock rankings indicate that KLAC maintains a negative price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a strong growth score.
Amazon.com
- Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) was 0.92% lower in premarket trading on Thursday as analysts expect third-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.96 per share on revenue of $202.31 billion after the closing bell.
- MarketDash's stock rankings indicate that AMZN maintains a negative price trend in the short term but a positive trend in the medium and long terms, with a strong growth score.
Cues From Last Session
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, led by information technology, financials, and energy, while utilities, real estate, and communication services lagged.
Insights From Analysts
BlackRock Investment Institute strategists said the Middle East energy shock is shifting from crude supply disruption to downstream constraints.
They wrote that "scarcity has shifted downstream," with refining and shipping bottlenecks pushing "the delivered cost of fuel from the Middle East to Asia to more than twice prewar levels."
They also said select energy-linked equities have surged, noting shares of refiners have jumped "some 160% this year," while tanker operators have climbed "120%," and added, "Selectivity is key in this environment."
Translation: the easy money in energy isn't in the oil patch anymore. It's in the stuff that moves and processes the oil. And 160% in a year for refiners is the kind of number that makes you wonder why you didn't buy them in January.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Thursday.
- The third-quarter advance GDP number, initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 24, along with September's personal income, spending, headline, and core PCE price index data will all be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
That's a lot of data hitting at once, and the PCE number is the one that matters most for the Fed crowd. If core PCE comes in hot, the December hike odds probably go higher than 79.6%.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 1.12% to hover around $101.63 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.84% to hover around $110.70 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 1.04% to hover around $4,025 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.06% higher at the 102.25 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading at $80,000 per coin, down 1.7% over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were mixed on Thursday, as Australia's ASX 200, India's Nifty 50, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices rose. South Korea's Kospi, China's CSI 300, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices fell. European markets were higher in early trading.
